OK, we are now doing much worse in the last month after some reopenings of businesses and relaxation of gatherings in public areas like parks and beaches. Many businesses are still relatively closed with restrictions and many hotels are still closed yet bars, gyms, churches, and other meetings both indoor and outdoors were allowed. Problem is people did not adhere to safety measures such as limiting group sizes and using any face masks. Most felt that it was not needed in light of relatively low Virus cases reported on testing up through May and June.
However all of those people were fooled by the highly contagious virus and some 4 to 6 weeks later we see that the virus is widely spread on Oahu and Honolulu with risk of spread to other islands. Outside visitors have grown from several hundred to now 800 per day but testing is not showing they are as big a source of problems and community spread.
So how did this happen. Low numbers of cases (we had several days of zero) only reflect the ability to test the right (infected) people at the right time. We were led to believe that there was not much virus out there after several weeks of testing with consistently low numbers. However once people increased contact and mobility the virus spread wildly with reported cases in gyms, bars, business training sessions, funerals, parties, etc. Further there were cases in many govt services locations such as police, fire, city workers, food stores, bus and service drivers, EMT and medical workers.
We are now unable to control the spread of cases which is rising each week and has risk to easily exceed our ability to handle those who become hospitalized or need ICU or ventilators. The next week will tell how bad we will get. Compared to other states are are very good but for us we are at the brink of going beyond capacity. Meanwhile the Dept of Health isn't providing enough contact tracers to handle the increasing numbers of positive cases even though they did train up to 400 volunteers as tracers. Problem is they expect these people to work as volunteers and only a few have been hired to expand the 100-170 paid tracers. 10 military workers were added to assist.
As a result of all this Hawaii will be headed toward a shut down, how extensive will depend on how bad it gets. Our motorsports will not be allowed to happen in the wake of rising numbers, Aloha Stadium continues to be used as a parking lot for 3500 rental cars that are not being used with tourism shut down. There is doubt about if UH football will hold a season in the fall at the Stadium, Public schools have announced they will not hold high school games at the stadium in 2020.
I think it is highly likely we will not be able to hold any autocross events at Aloha Stadium for many months and perhaps into 2021 until a vaccine arrives and there is some control of spread of the infection. Hospital treatments that are proven effective and testing that is rapid and reliable will help to speed up the process of recovery. Until then it will be very difficult for tourism to reopen with any sort of safety for travelers or workers. Add to all this the possibility of the virus surging in the fall (late sept to early Oct) along with the flu season or getting worse in the winter months creates additional trouble.
In any case everyone practice safe measures and do not take any risks that you could otherwise avoid. When the vaccine arrives then consider it with respect to your own situation.
